主题:【求助】一个完整的商业周期包括几个阶段?

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Parkin andBade's text Economics gives the following definition of the business cycle:

在帕金和巴德的经济学教材中,对商业周期给出了以下定义:

"Thebusiness cycle is the periodic but irregular up-and-down movements in economicactivity, measured by fluctuations in real GDP and other macroeconomicvariables."

“商业周期是经济活动的周期性但不规则的上下波动,以实际GDP和其他宏观经济变量的波动来衡量。”

To put itsimply, the business cycle is defined as the real fluctuations in economicactivity and gross domestic product (GDP) over a period of time. The fact thatthe economy experiences these ups-and-downs in activity should be no surprise.In fact, all modern industrial economies like that of the United States endureconsiderable swings in economic activity over time.

简单地说,商业周期是指经济活动和国内生产总值在一段时间内的实际波动。经济在活动中经历这些起起落落的事实不足为奇。事实上,所有像美国那样的现代工业经济体,随着时间的推移,经济活动都会出现相当大的波动。

The ups may bemarked by indicators like high growth and low unemployment while the downs aregenerally defined by low or stagnant growth and high unemployment. Given itsrelationship to the phases of the business cycle, unemployment is but one ofthe various economic indicators used to measure economic activity. For mostdetailed information about how various economic indicators and theirrelationship to the business cycle, check out A Beginner's Guide to EconomicIndicators.

高增长和低失业率等指标可能标志着经济复苏,而经济低迷通常由低增长或停滞增长以及高失业率来定义。鉴于失业与商业周期各阶段的关系,失业只是用来衡量经济活动的各种经济指标之一。有关各种经济指标及其与商业周期的关系的最详细信息,请参阅《经济指标入门指南》。

Parkin and Badego on to explain that despite the name, the business cycle is not a regular,predictable, or repeating the cycle. Though its phases can be defined, itstiming is random and, to a large degree, unpredictable.

帕金和巴德继续解释道,尽管名字中有周期二字,但商业周期并不是一个规律的、可预测的或重复的循环。虽然它的阶段可以被定义,但其时间是随机的,并且在很大程度上是不可预测的。

The Phases ofthe Business Cycle

商业周期的各个阶段

While no twobusiness cycles are exactly the same, they can be identified as a sequence offour phases that were classified and studied in their most modern sense byAmerican e·conomists Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell in their text"Measuring Business Cycles." The four primary phases of the businesscycle include:

虽然没有两个商业周期是完全相同的,而根据美国经济学家阿瑟?伯恩斯和卫斯理?米切尔在他们的著作《衡量商业周期》中最前沿的分类和研究,一个周期通常可以分为四个阶段,大致包括:

Expansion: A speedupin the pace of economic activity defined by high growth, low unemployment, andincreasing prices. The period marked from trough to peak.

扩张:经济增长速度加快,由高增长、低失业率和物价上涨所决定。包括从低谷到高峰的时期。

Peak: The upperturning point of a business cycle and the point at which expansion turns intocontraction.

峰值:商业周期的上升拐点和收缩拐点。

Contraction: A slowdown inthe pace of economic activity defined by low or stagnant growth, highunemployment, and declining prices. It is the period from peak to trough.

收缩:经济活动放缓,由低增长或停滞增长,高失业率和价格下降所决定。包括从峰值到低谷的时期。

Trough: The lowestturning point of a business cycle in which a contraction turns into anexpansion. This turning point is also called Recovery.

低谷:商业周期中收缩转变为扩张的最低拐点。这个拐点也称为复苏。

These fourphases also make up what is known as the "boom-and-bust" cycles,which are characterized as business cycles in which the periods of expansionare swift and the subsequent contraction is steep and severe.

这四个阶段也构成了所谓的“繁荣与萧条”周期,其特征扩张迅速,收缩陡峭的商业周期。

But What AboutRecessions?

但是经济衰退呢?

A recessionoccurs if a contraction is severe enough. The National Bureau of EconomicResearch (NBER) identifies a recession as a contraction or significant declinein economic activity "lasting more than a few months, normally visible inreal GDP, real income, employment, industrial production."

如果收缩足够严重,就会出现衰退。美国国家经济研究局认为经济衰退是经济活动的收缩或显著下降“持续几个月以上,通常可见于实际GDP、实际收入、就业和工业生产中。”

Along the samevein, a deep trough is called a slump or a depression. The difference between arecession and a depression, which is not well-understood by non-e·conomists, isexplained in this helpful guide: Recession? Depression? What's the difference?

同样的情况下,一个深谷被称为暴跌或萧条。经济衰退和萧条之间的差别,非经济学家不太了解,在这本实用指南中解释了:衰退?萧条?有什么区别?

The GreatRecession

经济大衰退

The GreatRecession was a period of general economic decline observed in world marketsduring the late 2000s and early 2010s.

“大衰退”指的是20世纪末至2010年初全球市场普遍出现的经济衰退时期。

The scale andtiming of the recession varied from country to country. The InternationalMonetary Fund concluded that the overall impact was the most severe since theGreat Depression in the 1930s.

经济衰退的规模和时机因国而异。国际货币基金组织得出的结论是,自上世纪30年代大萧条以来,“大衰退”的总体影响最为严重。

大萧条源于美国房地产市场的崩溃,与2007-2008年的金融危机和2007-2009年的美国次贷危机有关,尽管其他国家的政策也起到了一定作用。根据美国国家经济研究局(美国经济衰退的官方仲裁机构)的数据,美国经济衰退始于200712月,结束于20096月,持续了19个月的时间。

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大萧条导致了市场经济中宝贵资产的稀缺和世界经济中金融部门(银行)的崩溃。随后这些银行得到了美国政府的救助。

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