主题：【转帖】2009全球经济十大预言

2009全球经济十大预言：
1. 美国经济的衰退将会非常严重。「情况会越来越坏，而且没办法挽救。」
2. 欧洲与日本的经济衰退程度也会是近几十年来最惨的。「德国的GDP成长率掉到2.2%，日本的衰退情况也会比亚洲金融风暴时更严重。」
3. 新兴市场的成长速度将大幅减缓。「物价暴跌将使很多新兴经济体受到冲击，包括俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、伊朗、南非等地；而波斯湾各国会不会是下一个受害的地区？在很多新兴市场，2009年的成长率可能不到2007年的一半。
4. 各国中央银行将继续降息。「零利率的竞赛已经开始了。」
5. 会有更多经济振兴方案问世，其中有一部分规模会很大。「这些经济振兴方案的首要目标就是刺激经济成长，但背后的秘密就是民众的赋税将加重(特别是美国)。」
6. 物价将在这大半年维持低水平。「石油大约会跌到每桶38美元的价格。」
7. 对通货膨涨的恐惧将会被对通货紧缩的忧虑所取代。「核心通货膨胀率(Core inflation)将下滑至0.5%左右。」
8. 全球经济失衡(Global imbalances)的情况将在接下来的几年越来越明显。「2009年美国的经常帐赤字(Current Account DefICit)将会是2007年的40%。」
9. 金融风暴会持续下去，但美元将维持强势地位。
10. 美国与全球所面临的最大单一风险，是缺乏胆识的政策回应。
(01/12/2009 11:31 H EST)


HALF MOON BAY, Calif. -- During a presentation at the Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here, Nariman Behravesh, chief economist and executive vICe president of Global Insight Inc. (Waltham, Mass.), provided his top 10 predICtions for the economy in 2009. Global Insight provides economIC and financial forecasts on a number of sectors.
Behravesh also provided a gloomy outlook for semIConductors. In 2009, the IC market will be ''horrifIC'' and will go into negative numbers, he said. In 2010, ''we could move into positive territory, but it could be sluggish.''
What are the implICations on hi-tech in general? ''This (downturn) will be worse than 2001,'' he said. "There will be a recovery. Plan for a recovery in 2010.''
But it won't be 2011 until he sees a strong recovery. Meanwhile, here are Behravesh's top 10 predICtions for the economy in 2009:
1. The U.S. recession will be one of the deepest -- if not deepest -- in the postwar period.
''This is going to be bad. There is no way to sugarcoat it.''
2. Also one of the worst downturns for Europe and Japan in many decades.
''We revised Germany down to 2.2 (in terms of GDP). For Japan, the downturn will be worse than during the Asia Crisis.''
3. Growth in emerging markets will decelerate dramatICally.
''Collapsing commodity prICes are hurting many emerging economies, including Russia, Venezuela, Iran and South AfrICa -- will the Gulf states be next? For many emerging markets, 2009 growth will be less than half the rate in 2007.''
4. Central banks will keep cutting rates.
''The race to zero is on.''
5. More fiscal stimulus in the pipeline—some of it massive.
''The first thing to do is kICk start growth. The dirty little secret is taxes are going up (in the U.S.).''
6. Commodity prICes will remain at depressed levels for much of year.
''Oil is at $38 and some change.''
7. Inflationary fears will be replaced by concerns about deflation.
''Core inflation will fall to around 0.5 percent.''
8. Global imbalances will improve markedly over the next couple of years.
''The U.S. current account defICit in 2009 will be about 40 percent of the level in 2007.''
9. The dollar will remain relatively strong as long as the financial crisis continues.
''The best looking horse in the glue factory.''
10. The single biggest risk facing the U.S. and global economies is a timid polICy response.