赚个朋友的描述;先看这个图
对应的柴静的表述
“这个复杂的图表显示的是,当PM2.5升高的时候,人群的死亡率是随之上升的,这个趋势
的测算,很多科研机构都做过”
这个图的文献来源:
Li P, Xin J, Wang Y, et al. Time-series analysis of mortality effects from
airborne particulate matter size fractions in Beijing. Atmospheric
Environment, 2013, 81: 253-262.
对应的文章里的图:
三条曲线,CM 表示 circulatory mortality 循环系统疾病死亡率,RM 表示
respiratory mortality 呼吸系统疾病死亡率,NAM 表示 non-accidental mortality 非
意外总死亡率(这个视频里确实写错了,少了个「非」)
用大白话说,三条线都是死亡增长率,只要是正的,表示是死亡率是增长的。
上面的柱子, 表示PM2.5浓度变率,是负的,北京的PM2.5 ,始终是减少的
作者的结论
1 北京PM2.5是下降的,变率一致都是负的
2 死亡率的变率都是正的,表示增加,但是增加幅度有明显变化
3 但是作者并不分析为啥会这样,就认为是应该的,很滑稽
4 2008年因为奥运,PM2.5应该有显著减少,所以死亡率“增率”显著降低
5 所以作者认为PM2.5 可能对死亡率增率减少有贡献(非常弱的结论,就凭2008年的情况)
最后作者的结论
Our analyses conclude that temperature and particulates, exposures to both of
which are expected to increase with climate change, might act together to
worsen human health in Beijing, especially in the cool seasons.
但是,柴公知就可以得到一个科学界公认的结论:
当PM2.5升高的时候,人群的死亡率是随之上升的
从作者原图里,得到的是完全相反的结论。
文献里地表述,大家可以核实
Fig. 6 depicts the interannual variability of the mass concentration of PM2.5
and the estimated percent increase for PM2.5 in daily mortality from 2005 to 2
009. It can be seen that the PM2.5 levels generally declines in recent years
in Beijing, whereas the relative risk shows different change trends. Overall,
the level of the estimated percentage increase assumes an escalating tendency
during the study period, in addition to having a low value in 2008 because
strict atmospheric pollution control measures were implemented in Beijing–
Tianjin–Hebei region before the Olympics games (Xin et al., 2010 and Xin et
al., 2012). But it bounced off the bottom and started a new uptrend after 2008
. The values which show the largest effect in 2009, rose sharply again after
the Beijing Olympics. Under this serious current situation, a 10 μg m−3
increase of PM2.5 corresponded to more than 1.00% increase of non-accidental
mortality, respiratory mortality, and circulatory mortality.